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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd